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Influences of ENSO Events on the Hydropower Production in Brazil

Lall, U ; Souza Filho, F A

Eos (Washington, D.C.), 2006-12, Vol.87 (52)

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  • Título:
    Influences of ENSO Events on the Hydropower Production in Brazil
  • Autor: Lall, U ; Souza Filho, F A
  • É parte de: Eos (Washington, D.C.), 2006-12, Vol.87 (52)
  • Notas: SourceType-Scholarly Journals-2
    ObjectType-Conference Paper-1
    SourceType-Conference Papers & Proceedings-1
    ObjectType-Feature-2
    ObjectType-Article-3
  • Descrição: Hydropower is the dominant source of electrical energy in Brazil. A network of more than 60 reservoirs is used for hydropower production. In 2001, Brazil suffered from major energy shortages as the capacity to generate energy was limited by available reservoir storage, leading to a significant socio-economic impact, and a reduction of the GDP associated with the manufacturing sector. The climatic aspects of such events are consequently of great interest. Past analyses have looked at the response of seasonal rainfall to ENSO activity in different parts of Brazil. Here, we explore the connections between ENSO, and the seasonal reservoir inflows, and hence the potential seasonal hydropower production from the Brazilian system. The analysis considers both concurrent and leading season relationships with the NINO3 index. A cluster analysis is used to identify groups of inflow stations with similar attributes. The ENSO response for each cluster is then analyzed using statistical methods i? composite, correlation, rank correlation. Statistically significant, spatially variable changes are identified over the network, and conditional probability distributions of potential changes in energy production by ENSO phase for different seasons are identified. The spatial variability of the response suggests that an integrated evaluation of the response for the entire reservoir network may be very useful to manage the potentially opposite impacts of ENSO in different seasons and different regions of Brazil. An anticipatory spatial balancing of reservoir storage using ENSO information could potentially avoid adverse climatic impacts, and enhance average hydropower production and reliability.
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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