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An open-data-driven agent-based model to simulate infectious disease outbreaks

Hunter, Elizabeth ; Mac Namee, Brian ; Kelleher, John Khudyakov, Yury E

PloS one, 2018-12, Vol.13 (12), p.e0208775-e0208775 [Revista revisada por pares]

United States: Public Library of Science

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Título:
An open-data-driven agent-based model to simulate infectious disease outbreaks
Autor: Hunter, Elizabeth ; Mac Namee, Brian ; Kelleher, John
Khudyakov, Yury E
Materias: Adolescent ; Adult ; Age composition ; Agent based models ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Censuses ; Child ; Child, Preschool ; Cities ; Communicable diseases ; Communicable Diseases - epidemiology ; Computer and Information Sciences ; Computer Simulation ; Cost analysis ; Datasets ; Disease Outbreaks ; Ebola virus ; Education ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Geography, Medical ; Human papillomavirus ; Humans ; Immunity ; Immunization ; Infant ; Infant, Newborn ; Infectious diseases ; Ireland - epidemiology ; Measles ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Model testing ; Models, Biological ; Open data ; Outbreaks ; People and places ; Physical Sciences ; Population density ; Public health ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Risk factors ; Schools ; Social Sciences ; Systems Analysis ; Towns ; Vaccination ; Young Adult
Es parte de: PloS one, 2018-12, Vol.13 (12), p.e0208775-e0208775
Notas: ObjectType-Article-2
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Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Descripción: Agent-based models are a tool that can be used to better understand the dynamics of an infectious disease outbreak. An infectious disease outbreak is influenced by many factors including vaccination or immunity levels, population density, and the age structure of the population. We hypothesize that these factors along with interactions of factors and the actions of individuals would lead to outbreaks of different size and severity even in two towns that appear similar on paper. Thus, it is necessary to implement a model that is able to capture these interactions and the actions of individuals. Using openly available data we create a data-driven agent-based model to simulate the spread of an airborne infectious disease in an Irish town. Agent-based models have been known to produce results that include the emergence of patterns and behaviours that are not directly programmed into the model. Our model is tested by simulating an outbreak of measles that occurred in Schull, Ireland in 2012. We simulate the same outbreak in 33 different towns and look at the correlations between the model results and the town characteristics (population, area, vaccination rates, age structure) to determine if the results of the model are affected by interactions of those town characteristics and the decisions on the agents in the model. As expected our results show that the outbreaks are not strongly correlated with any of the main characteristics of the towns and thus the model is most likely capturing such interactions and the agent-based model is successful in capturing the differences in the outbreaks.
Editor: United States: Public Library of Science
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An open-data-driven agent-based model to simulate infectious disease outbreaks

Hunter, Elizabeth ; Mac Namee, Brian ; Kelleher, John Khudyakov, Yury E

United States: Public Library of Science

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