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Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study

Guo, Yuming ; Gasparrini, Antonio ; Li, Shanshan ; Sera, Francesco ; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria ; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline ; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento ; Lavigne, Eric ; Tawatsupa, Benjawan ; Punnasiri, Kornwipa ; Overcenco, Ala ; Correa, Patricia Matus ; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes ; Kan, Haidong ; Osorio, Samuel ; Jaakkola, Jouni J K ; Ryti, Niilo R I ; Goodman, Patrick G ; Zeka, Ariana ; Michelozzi, Paola ; Scortichini, Matteo ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Honda, Yasushi ; Seposo, Xerxes ; Kim, Ho ; Tobias, Aurelio ; Íñiguez, Carmen ; Forsberg, Bertil ; Åström, Daniel Oudin ; Guo, Yue Leon ; Chen, Bing-Yu ; Zanobetti, Antonella ; Schwartz, Joel ; Dang, Tran Ngoc ; Van, Dung Do ; Bell, Michelle L ; Armstrong, Ben ; Ebi, Kristie L ; Tong, Shilu Patz, Jonathan Alan

PLoS medicine, 2018-07, Vol.15 (7), p.e1002629 [Periódico revisado por pares]

United States: Public Library of Science

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Título:
Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study
Autor: Guo, Yuming ; Gasparrini, Antonio ; Li, Shanshan ; Sera, Francesco ; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria ; de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline ; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento ; Lavigne, Eric ; Tawatsupa, Benjawan ; Punnasiri, Kornwipa ; Overcenco, Ala ; Correa, Patricia Matus ; Ortega, Nicolas Valdes ; Kan, Haidong ; Osorio, Samuel ; Jaakkola, Jouni J K ; Ryti, Niilo R I ; Goodman, Patrick G ; Zeka, Ariana ; Michelozzi, Paola ; Scortichini, Matteo ; Hashizume, Masahiro ; Honda, Yasushi ; Seposo, Xerxes ; Kim, Ho ; Tobias, Aurelio ; Íñiguez, Carmen ; Forsberg, Bertil ; Åström, Daniel Oudin ; Guo, Yue Leon ; Chen, Bing-Yu ; Zanobetti, Antonella ; Schwartz, Joel ; Dang, Tran Ngoc ; Van, Dung Do ; Bell, Michelle L ; Armstrong, Ben ; Ebi, Kristie L ; Tong, Shilu
Patz, Jonathan Alan
Assuntos: Adaptation ; Analysis ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Cause of Death ; Climate change ; Climate Change - mortality ; Climatic changes ; Clinical medicine ; Earth Sciences ; Ecology and Environmental Sciences ; Emissions ; Emissions (Pollution) ; Environmental Exposure - adverse effects ; Environmental health ; Environmental impact ; Epidemiology ; Equator ; Geographical variations ; Global temperature changes ; Greenhouse effect ; Greenhouse Effect - mortality ; Greenhouse Effect - prevention & control ; Greenhouse gases ; Greenhouse Gases - adverse effects ; Health care ; Health services ; Heat ; Hospitals ; Hot Temperature - adverse effects ; Humans ; Hygiene ; Influence ; Medical research ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Mitigation ; Mortality ; People and Places ; Pharmacy ; Physical Sciences ; Preventive medicine ; Public health ; R&D ; Research & development ; Risk Assessment ; Risk Factors ; Statistics ; Temperature ; Time Factors ; Time series ; University colleges
É parte de: PLoS medicine, 2018-07, Vol.15 (7), p.e1002629
Notas: I have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: MLB has received research grants from NIH and EPA, and travel expenses paid by universities and research institutions in order to give seminars and participate in research meetings. All other authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Descrição: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave-mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions from 1971-2099, with five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality in relation to heatwaves in the future under each scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, with two assumptions for adaptation (no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation) and three scenarios of population change (high variant, median variant, and low variant). Results show that, if there is no adaptation, heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to increase the most in tropical and subtropical countries/regions (close to the equator), while European countries and the United States will have smaller percent increases in heatwave-related excess mortality. The higher the population variant and the greenhouse gas emissions, the higher the increase of heatwave-related excess mortality in the future. The changes in 2031-2080 compared with 1971-2020 range from approximately 2,000% in Colombia to 150% in Moldova under the highest emission scenario and high-variant population scenario, without any adaptation. If we considered hypothetical adaptation to future climate, under high-variant population scenario and all scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, the heatwave-related excess mortality is expected to still increase across all the countries/regions except Moldova and Japan. However, the increase would be much smaller than the no adaptation scenario. The simple assumptions with respect to adaptation as follows: no adaptation and hypothetical adaptation results in some uncertainties of projections. This study provides a comprehensive characterisation of future heatwave-related excess mortality across various regions and under alternative scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, different assumptions of adaptation, and different scenarios of population change. The projections can help decision makers in planning adaptation and mitigation strategies for climate change.
Editor: United States: Public Library of Science
Idioma: Inglês

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Quantifying excess deaths related to heatwaves under climate change scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study

United States: Public Library of Science

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