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Temperature-related mortality in 17 large Chinese cities: How heat and cold affect mortality in China

Ma, Wenjuan ; Chen, Renjie ; Kan, Haidong

Environmental research, 2014-10, Vol.134, p.127-133 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Amsterdam: Elsevier Inc

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  • Título:
    Temperature-related mortality in 17 large Chinese cities: How heat and cold affect mortality in China
  • Autor: Ma, Wenjuan ; Chen, Renjie ; Kan, Haidong
  • Assuntos: Air conditioning ; Air. Soil. Water. Waste. Feeding ; Biological and medical sciences ; Cause of Death ; China ; China - epidemiology ; Cities ; Climate ; Climate variability ; Cold Temperature ; Environment. Living conditions ; Estimates ; Hot Temperature ; Households ; Humans ; Latitude ; Medical sciences ; Mortality ; Population health ; Public health ; Public health. Hygiene ; Public health. Hygiene-occupational medicine ; Regression ; Temperature ; Time-series models
  • É parte de: Environmental research, 2014-10, Vol.134, p.127-133
  • Notas: ObjectType-Article-1
    SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
    ObjectType-Feature-2
    content type line 23
  • Descrição: Few multicity studies have been conducted to investigate the acute health effects of cold and hot temperatures in China. We aimed to examine the relationship between temperature and daily mortality in 17 large Chinese cities. We first calculated city-specific effect of temperature using time-series regression models combined with distributed lag nonlinear models; then we pooled the city-specific estimates with the Bayesian hierarchical models. The cold effects lasted longer than the hot effects. For the cold effects, a 1°C decrease from the 25th to 1st percentiles of temperature over lags 0–14 days was associated with increases of 1.69% [95% posterior intervals (PI): 1.01%, 2.36%], 2.49% (95% PI: 1.53%, 3.46%) and 1.60% (95% PI: 0.32%, 2.87%) in total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, respectively. For the hot effects, a 1°C increase from the 75th to 99th percentiles of temperature was associated with corresponding increases of 2.83% (95% PI: 1.42%, 4.24%), 3.02% (95% PI: 1.33%, 4.71%) and 4.64% (95% PI: 1.96%, 7.31%). The latitudes, number of air conditioning per household and disposable income per capita were significant modifiers for cold effects; the proportion of the elderly was a significant modifier for hot effects. This largest epidemiological study of temperature to date in China suggested that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased mortality. Our findings may have important implications for the public health policies in China. •The largest study in China to address the effects of temperature and its modifiers.•Both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased mortality in China.•The hot effects were more immediate than cold effects.•Some city-level characteristics can modify the effect estimates.
  • Editor: Amsterdam: Elsevier Inc
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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