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Projected effects of climate change and forest management on carbon fluxes and biomass of a boreal forest

Islam, Md. Rafikul ; Jönsson, Anna Maria ; Bergkvist, John ; Lagergren, Fredrik ; Lindeskog, Mats ; Mölder, Meelis ; Scholze, Marko ; Kljun, Natascha

Agricultural and forest meteorology, 2024-04, Vol.349, p.109959, Article 109959 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Elsevier B.V

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  • Título:
    Projected effects of climate change and forest management on carbon fluxes and biomass of a boreal forest
  • Autor: Islam, Md. Rafikul ; Jönsson, Anna Maria ; Bergkvist, John ; Lagergren, Fredrik ; Lindeskog, Mats ; Mölder, Meelis ; Scholze, Marko ; Kljun, Natascha
  • Assuntos: Annan naturvetenskap ; Carbon compensation point (CCP) ; Climate scenario (RCP) ; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Sciences ; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap ; Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) ; Miljövetenskap ; Natural Sciences ; Naturvetenskap ; Norunda SE-Nor, Sweden ; Other Natural Sciences ; Process-based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS ; Reforestation
  • É parte de: Agricultural and forest meteorology, 2024-04, Vol.349, p.109959, Article 109959
  • Descrição: •We modelled reforestation of a boreal forest in Sweden for 200-years with LPJ-GUESS.•We studied the impact of forest management on carbon budgets under varied climates.•Forest management showed significant impact on carbon stock and fluxes.•The carbon compensation point was reached 12–16 years post clear-cut.•Net carbon sink of an unmanaged forest may decline by 11–68 % by 2100 under RCP 8.5. Boreal forests are key to global carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these forests could be profound. Nearly 70 % of the European boreal forests are intensively managed, but our understanding of the combined effects of forest management and climate change on the forest's integral role as a C sink is still limited. In this study, we aim to fill this gap with simulations of the process-based dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. We evaluated the effects of four forest management options under two different climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), at a southern boreal forest stand in Sweden. These options were compared against a baseline without clear-cut or management interventions. We found that the projected increase in temperatures (+2 to +4 °C) during the latter part of the 21st century will reduce the net C sink strength, particularly in the unmanaged forest. The standing biomass C for reforestations was projected to be 57–67 % lower in 2100 than in the old forest in 2022. The study also revealed that the C sequestration potential of replanted pine forests may surpass that of 200-years old forests in the far future (2076–2100). The study did not detect statistically significant differences in overall net C exchange between the clear-cut with subsequent reforestation options and the baseline, even though specific reforestation strategies, such as pine plantations, enhanced the overall net C sink by 7–20 % relative to the baseline during 2022–2100. These findings underscore the profound influence of forest management on the net C budget, surpassing that of climate change scenarios alone. By adopting pertinent reforestation strategies, C uptake could be augmented, with concurrently improved forest productivity, resulting in favourable outcomes for the forest's critical role in C sequestration and storage amidst a changing climate. [Display omitted]
  • Editor: Elsevier B.V
  • Idioma: Inglês
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