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Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence

Fox, Spencer J ; Miller, Joel C ; Meyers, Lauren Ancel Koelle, Katia

PLoS computational biology, 2017-10, Vol.13 (10), p.e1005749-e1005749 [Periódico revisado por pares]

United States: Public Library of Science

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Título:
Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence
Autor: Fox, Spencer J ; Miller, Joel C ; Meyers, Lauren Ancel
Koelle, Katia
Assuntos: Biology and Life Sciences ; Computational Biology ; Computer and Information Sciences ; Earth Sciences ; Emergence ; Epidemics ; Epidemiology ; Humans ; Immunity ; Influenza ; Influenza research ; Influenza, Human - epidemiology ; Influenza, Human - immunology ; Leaves ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Models, Biological ; Mortality ; Northern Hemisphere ; Pandemics ; Pandemics - statistics & numerical data ; Refractory period ; Risk ; Risk assessment ; Seasonal variations ; Seasons ; Stochastic models ; Stochasticity ; Surveillance ; United States ; Viruses
É parte de: PLoS computational biology, 2017-10, Vol.13 (10), p.e1005749-e1005749
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The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Descrição: Influenza pandemics can emerge unexpectedly and wreak global devastation. However, each of the six pandemics since 1889 emerged in the Northern Hemisphere just after the flu season, suggesting that pandemic timing may be predictable. Using a stochastic model fit to seasonal flu surveillance data from the United States, we find that seasonal flu leaves a transient wake of heterosubtypic immunity that impedes the emergence of novel flu viruses. This refractory period provides a simple explanation for not only the spring-summer timing of historical pandemics, but also early increases in pandemic severity and multiple waves of transmission. Thus, pandemic risk may be seasonal and predictable, with the accuracy of pre-pandemic and real-time risk assessments hinging on reliable seasonal influenza surveillance and precise estimates of the breadth and duration of heterosubtypic immunity.
Editor: United States: Public Library of Science
Idioma: Inglês

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Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence

Fox, Spencer J ; Miller, Joel C ; Meyers, Lauren Ancel Koelle, Katia

United States: Public Library of Science

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