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The Future is in the Past： Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the Chinese Economy for the Next 20 Years

Zhang, Jun ; Xu, Liheng ; Liu, Fang

China & world economy, 2015, Vol.23 (1), p.21-46 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Beijing: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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  • Título:
    The Future is in the Past： Projecting and Plotting the Potential Rate of Growth and Trajectory of the Structural Change of the Chinese Economy for the Next 20 Years
  • Autor: Zhang, Jun ; Xu, Liheng ; Liu, Fang
  • Assuntos: Asian economies ; China ; convergence ; Cross-national analysis ; Economic forecasts ; economic growth ; Employment ; GDP ; GDP增长率 ; Gross Domestic Product ; Growth rate ; Growth rates ; O10 ; O40 ; O47 ; Probability ; Purchasing power parity ; Structural adjustment ; Structural change ; Studies ; the Chinese economy ; 中国经济 ; 人均GDP ; 投影 ; 第一产业 ; 第三产业 ; 第二产业 ; 结构变化
  • É parte de: China & world economy, 2015, Vol.23 (1), p.21-46
  • Notas: 11-4639/F
    Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.
    Asian economies, convergence, economic growth, structural change, the Chinese economy
    ArticleID:CWE12098
    istex:87CBBE0E91F78BDF13F3E756B65FE68C95E7DA08
    ark:/67375/WNG-2R00WCBF-K
    The research on which the paper is based has been funded by the National Natural Science Funds for Key Research Projects (No. 71333002) and the 2050 Projects of Shanghai “Pattern, cycles and dynamics of China's future economic growth and their influence on the development of Shanghai,” to whom the authors are very grateful. The authors are also grateful to Dr Zheng Yi from the Shanghai Li Xin University of Accounting, who participated in discussion in the course of drafting this paper.
    ObjectType-Article-1
    SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
    ObjectType-Feature-2
    content type line 23
  • Descrição: Based on the convergence hypothesis and referring to the experience of East Asian high-performing economies from 1950 to 2010, this paper projects and plots the potential growth rate of the Chinese economy over the next 20years. It predicts that the potential growth rate of per capita GDP adjusted by purchasing power parity averages at 6. 02 percent from 2015 to 2035, while the potential GDP growth rate of 2015 would still be above 8percent, which implies that the realized rate of growth has not reached its potential since 2012. Besides, based on the per capita GDP projected and on cross -country comparison, the paper plots the trajectory of structural change of the Chinese economy from 2015 to 2035. The result shows that： （i） the value-added share of primary industry will drop more rapidly than the employment share; （ii） the value-added share of secondary industry will decline and employment share will present an inverted U shape whose turning point will probably come between 2020 and 2025; （iii） both the value-added and employment share of tertiary industry will increase continuously.
  • Editor: Beijing: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Idioma: Inglês
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