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The Delphi technique in forecasting– A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017)

Flostrand, Andrew ; Pitt, Leyland ; Bridson, Shannon

Technological forecasting & social change, 2020-01, Vol.150, p.119773, Article 119773 [Periódico revisado por pares]

New York: Elsevier Inc

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  • Título:
    The Delphi technique in forecasting– A 42-year bibliographic analysis (1975–2017)
  • Autor: Flostrand, Andrew ; Pitt, Leyland ; Bridson, Shannon
  • Assuntos: Bibliographic analysis ; Citation analysis ; Data analysis ; Delphi ; Delphi method ; Forecasting ; Indexing services ; Industrial Marketing ; Industriell marknadsföring ; Methodological approaches ; Predictions ; Researchers ; Scientific papers ; Trend analysis ; Visual analytics
  • É parte de: Technological forecasting & social change, 2020-01, Vol.150, p.119773, Article 119773
  • Descrição: •Journal appetite for applied Delphi research is both high and accelerating.•Health care accounts for 61% of applied Delphi research, exceeding 80% in 2016.•Over 2400 journals have published Delphi research across many disciplines.•Novel variants of the Delphi technique continue to be developed. Since the infancy of the Delphi Technique for collecting and aggregating expert insight, this methodological tool has been discussed, adapted and applied in over 2,600 published scholarly papers to date. This paper mines the major citation indexing services to analyze five dimensions of these data: primary contribution (methodological or applied), field and subfield, length (in pages), year, and journal/conference. Interpreted visual analytics of these five dimensions (both individually and in combination) provide researchers, practitioners and editors with clear insights about whether the Delphi technique is still as prominently used, discussed, and written about in the academic literature as it was twenty years ago and the related trends that might inform predictions of its future use. Among these insights, a simple time series of frequencies of Delphi publications by year immediately shows that academic acceptance of Delphi as a research tool is not only well established, but it has been growing in popularity and range of research domains for two decades predicting unprecedented levels of use in the years to come. [Display omitted]
  • Editor: New York: Elsevier Inc
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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