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Data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of spatio-temporal evolution of slow slip events: application to the 2010 long-term slow slip event in the Bungo Channel, Japan

Kano, Masayuki ; Tanaka, Yusuke ; Sato, Daisuke ; Iinuma, Takeshi ; Hori, Takane

Earth, planets, and space, 2024-12, Vol.76 (1), p.57-12, Article 57 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Título:
Data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of spatio-temporal evolution of slow slip events: application to the 2010 long-term slow slip event in the Bungo Channel, Japan
Autor: Kano, Masayuki ; Tanaka, Yusuke ; Sato, Daisuke ; Iinuma, Takeshi ; Hori, Takane
Assuntos: 6. Geodesy ; Acceleration ; Bungo Channel ; Data assimilation ; Data collection ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Earthquakes ; Electronic data processing ; Express Letter ; Forecasts and trends ; Frictional parameter ; Geology ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Global Navigation Satellite System ; Japan ; Monitoring ; Observations ; Physics ; Seismic activity ; Slip ; Slow slip event ; Strike-slip faults (Geology) ; Subduction ; Subduction (geology) ; Subduction zones ; Subduction zones (Geology)
É parte de: Earth, planets, and space, 2024-12, Vol.76 (1), p.57-12, Article 57
Descrição: Monitoring and predicting fault slip behaviors in subduction zones is essential for understanding earthquake cycles and assessing future earthquake potential. We developed a data assimilation method for fault slip monitoring and the short-term prediction of slow slip events, and applied to the 2010 Bungo Channel slow slip event in southwest Japan. The observed geodetic data were quantitatively explained using a physics-based model with data assimilation. We investigated short-term predictability by assimilating observation data within limited periods. Without prior constraints on fault slip style, observations solely during slip acceleration predicted the occurrence of a fast slip; however, the inclusion of slip deceleration data successfully predicted a slow transient slip. With prior constraints to exclude unstable slip, the assimilation of data after slow slip event occurrence also predicted a slow transient slip. This study provides a tool using data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and prediction based on real observation data. Graphical Abstract
Editor: Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Idioma: Inglês

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Data assimilation for fault slip monitoring and short-term prediction of spatio-temporal evolution of slow slip events: application to the 2010 long-term slow slip event in the Bungo Channel, Japan

Kano, Masayuki ; Tanaka, Yusuke ; Sato, Daisuke ; Iinuma, Takeshi ; Hori, Takane

Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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