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Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions

Wang, Bin ; Xiang, Baoqiang ; Lee, June-Yi

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2013-02, Vol.110 (8), p.2718-2722 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences

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  • Título:
    Subtropical High predictability establishes a promising way for monsoon and tropical storm predictions
  • Autor: Wang, Bin ; Xiang, Baoqiang ; Lee, June-Yi
  • Assuntos: Atmosphere ; Atmospheric circulation ; Climate ; Climate models ; Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change ; Earth, ocean, space ; El Nino ; Exact sciences and technology ; External geophysics ; Meteorology ; Modeling ; Monsoons ; Oceans ; Physical Sciences ; Precipitation ; Predictability ; Rain ; Storms ; Summer ; Tropical Climate ; Weather ; Weather forecasting
  • É parte de: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2013-02, Vol.110 (8), p.2718-2722
  • Notas: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214626110
    ObjectType-Article-1
    SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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    Author contributions: B.W. and B.X. designed research; B.W. and B.X. performed research; B.X. and J.-Y.L. analyzed data; and B.W., B.X., and J.-Y.L. wrote the paper.
    Edited by John M. Wallace, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, and approved December 12, 2012 (received for review August 22, 2012)
  • Descrição: Monsoon rainfall and tropical storms (TSs) impose great impacts on society, yet their seasonal predictions are far from successful. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is a prime circulation system affecting East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and western North Pacific TS activities, but the sources of its variability and predictability have not been established. Here we show that the WPSH variation faithfully represents fluctuations of EASM strength (r = –0.92), the total TS days over the subtropical western North Pacific (r = –0.81), and the total number of TSs impacting East Asian coasts (r = –0.76) during 1979–2009. Our numerical experiment results establish that the WPSH variation is primarily controlled by central Pacific cooling/warming and a positive atmosphere-ocean feedback between the WPSH and the Indo-Pacific warm pool oceans. With a physically based empirical model and the state-of-the-art dynamical models, we demonstrate that the WPSH is highly predictable; this predictability creates a promising way for prediction of monsoon and TS. The predictions using the WPSH predictability not only yields substantially improved skills in prediction of the EASM rainfall, but also enables skillful prediction of the TS activities that the current dynamical models fail. Our findings reveal that positive WPSH–ocean interaction can provide a source of climate predictability and highlight the importance of subtropical dynamics in understanding monsoon and TS predictability.
  • Editor: Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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