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Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts

Rocha, Luis E C ; Liljeros, Fredrik ; Holme, Petter Salathé, Marcel

PLoS computational biology, 2011-03, Vol.7 (3), p.e1001109-e1001109 [Periódico revisado por pares]

United States: Public Library of Science

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Título:
Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts
Autor: Rocha, Luis E C ; Liljeros, Fredrik ; Holme, Petter
Salathé, Marcel
Assuntos: Behavior ; Brazil - epidemiology ; Computer Simulation ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease transmission ; Distribution ; Epidemics ; Female ; Fysik ; Health aspects ; Humans ; Infectious Diseases/Sexually Transmitted Diseases ; Internet ; Male ; Models, Biological ; Models, Statistical ; NATURAL SCIENCES ; NATURVETENSKAP ; Physics ; Physics/Interdisciplinary Physics ; Prostitution ; Public Health and Epidemiology/Epidemiology ; Public Health and Epidemiology/Infectious Diseases ; Sex ; Sex Work - statistics & numerical data ; Sexual Partners ; Sexually transmitted diseases ; Sexually Transmitted Diseases - epidemiology ; Social aspects ; South Korea ; Studies
É parte de: PLoS computational biology, 2011-03, Vol.7 (3), p.e1001109-e1001109
Notas: ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
Conceived and designed the experiments: LECR FL PH. Performed the experiments: LECR PH. Analyzed the data: LECR FL PH. Wrote the paper: LECR FL PH.
Descrição: Sexual contact patterns, both in their temporal and network structure, can influence the spread of sexually transmitted infections (STI). Most previous literature has focused on effects of network topology; few studies have addressed the role of temporal structure. We simulate disease spread using SI and SIR models on an empirical temporal network of sexual contacts in high-end prostitution. We compare these results with several other approaches, including randomization of the data, classic mean-field approaches, and static network simulations. We observe that epidemic dynamics in this contact structure have well-defined, rather high epidemic thresholds. Temporal effects create a broad distribution of outbreak sizes, even if the per-contact transmission probability is taken to its hypothetical maximum of 100%. In general, we conclude that the temporal correlations of our network accelerate outbreaks, especially in the early phase of the epidemics, while the network topology (apart from the contact-rate distribution) slows them down. We find that the temporal correlations of sexual contacts can significantly change simulated outbreaks in a large empirical sexual network. Thus, temporal structures are needed alongside network topology to fully understand the spread of STIs. On a side note, our simulations further suggest that the specific type of commercial sex we investigate is not a reservoir of major importance for HIV.
Editor: United States: Public Library of Science
Idioma: Inglês

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Simulated epidemics in an empirical spatiotemporal network of 50,185 sexual contacts

Rocha, Luis E C ; Liljeros, Fredrik ; Holme, Petter Salathé, Marcel

United States: Public Library of Science

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