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A tree based eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model to forecast the annual rice production in Bangladesh

Noorunnahar, Mst ; Chowdhury, Arman Hossain ; Mila, Farhana Arefeen V. E., Sathishkumar

PloS one, 2023-03, Vol.18 (3), p.e0283452-e0283452 [Periódico revisado por pares]

United States: Public Library of Science

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Título:
A tree based eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model to forecast the annual rice production in Bangladesh
Autor: Noorunnahar, Mst ; Chowdhury, Arman Hossain ; Mila, Farhana Arefeen
V. E., Sathishkumar
Assuntos: Accuracy ; Agricultural industry ; Agricultural production ; Agriculture ; Analysis ; Artificial intelligence ; Autoregressive models ; Bangladesh ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Computer and Information Sciences ; Crop production ; Crop yields ; Drift ; Earth Sciences ; Error analysis ; Food security ; Forecasting ; GDP ; General circulation models ; Gross Domestic Product ; Growth models ; Incidence ; Machine Learning ; Management ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Model testing ; Modelling ; Models, Statistical ; Neural networks ; Neural Networks, Computer ; Oryza ; Parameters ; People and Places ; Performance prediction ; Physical Sciences ; Production management ; Research and Analysis Methods ; Rice ; Root-mean-square errors ; Technology application ; Test sets ; Time series
É parte de: PloS one, 2023-03, Vol.18 (3), p.e0283452-e0283452
Notas: ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Descrição: In this study, we attempt to anticipate annual rice production in Bangladesh (1961-2020) using both the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) methods and compare their respective performances. On the basis of the lowest Corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc) values, a significant ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model with drift was chosen based on the findings. The drift parameter value shows that the production of rice positively trends upward. Thus, the ARIMA (0, 1, 1) model with drift was found to be significant. On the other hand, the XGBoost model for time series data was developed by changing the tunning parameters frequently with the greatest result. The four prominent error measures, such as mean absolute error (MAE), mean percentage error (MPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), were used to assess the predictive performance of each model. We found that the error measures of the XGBoost model in the test set were comparatively lower than those of the ARIMA model. Comparatively, the MAPE value of the test set of the XGBoost model (5.38%) was lower than that of the ARIMA model (7.23%), indicating that XGBoost performs better than ARIMA at predicting the annual rice production in Bangladesh. Hence, the XGBoost model performs better than the ARIMA model in predicting the annual rice production in Bangladesh. Therefore, based on the better performance, the study forecasted the annual rice production for the next 10 years using the XGBoost model. According to our predictions, the annual rice production in Bangladesh will vary from 57,850,318 tons in 2021 to 82,256,944 tons in 2030. The forecast indicated that the amount of rice produced annually in Bangladesh will increase in the years to come.
Editor: United States: Public Library of Science
Idioma: Inglês

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A tree based eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) machine learning model to forecast the annual rice production in Bangladesh

Noorunnahar, Mst ; Chowdhury, Arman Hossain ; Mila, Farhana Arefeen V. E., Sathishkumar

United States: Public Library of Science

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