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Real-time analysis on Japan’s labor productivity

Hara, Naoko ; Ichiue, Hibiki

Journal of the Japanese and international economies, 2011-06, Vol.25 (2), p.107-130 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Duluth: Elsevier Inc

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  • Título:
    Real-time analysis on Japan’s labor productivity
  • Autor: Hara, Naoko ; Ichiue, Hibiki
  • Assuntos: Census of Population ; Data analysis ; Economic theory ; Estimation ; Growth rates ; Japan ; Labor economics ; Labor productivity ; Labour productivity ; Measurement ; Monetary policy ; National accounts ; Productivity ; Productivity measurement ; Real time ; Real-time data ; Real-time data Productivity SNA Monetary policy Survey data ; Revisions ; SNA ; Studies ; Survey data
  • É parte de: Journal of the Japanese and international economies, 2011-06, Vol.25 (2), p.107-130
  • Notas: ObjectType-Article-2
    SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
    ObjectType-Feature-1
    content type line 23
  • Descrição: ► SNA has been substantially revised even after the second comprehensive revisions. ► Revisions to annual labor productivity growth are 0.4 percentage points on average. ► Upward revisions to labor productivity reflect an underestimation of recent Census. ► Revisions to source data help to predict revisions to labor productivity growth. ► Labor productivity during the 2000s will experience substantial revisions. This paper analyzes the revision to Japan’s labor productivity, measured using Japan’s System of National Accounts (SNA) data. We draw three main findings from our analysis. First, SNA data has been substantially revised in and after the second comprehensive revisions, as well as at the earlier stage of revisions. We find that the past absolute revisions to the annual growth rate of labor productivity often went beyond 1% point. Second, the annual growth rate of labor productivity has been revised upward by 0.4% points on average. We show that part of its upward revisions reflects an underestimation of employment through an increase in ‘non-response people,’ people who do not respond in the Population Census. Third, revisions to source data such as the Population Census and the Employment Status Survey are helpful to predict revisions to labor productivity growth. Our regression results suggest that labor productivity is likely to be revised upward during expansions or with low real-time estimates of value added. We conclude that the three findings indicate that labor productivity during the 2000s will experience substantial revisions in the future. This conclusion takes into account the fact that the SNA after 2000 has experienced at most one comprehensive revision. The upcoming revisions to labor productivity can be positive rather than negative.
  • Editor: Duluth: Elsevier Inc
  • Idioma: Inglês
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