skip to main content
Idioma:

Double the dates and go for Bayes — Impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies

Blaauw, Maarten ; Christen, J. Andrés ; Bennett, K.D. ; Reimer, Paula J.

Quaternary science reviews, 2018-05, Vol.188, p.58-66 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Elsevier Ltd

Texto completo disponível

Citações Citado por
  • Título:
    Double the dates and go for Bayes — Impacts of model choice, dating density and quality on chronologies
  • Autor: Blaauw, Maarten ; Christen, J. Andrés ; Bennett, K.D. ; Reimer, Paula J.
  • Assuntos: Age-depth model ; Bayesian statistics ; Chronological uncertainties ; Radiocarbon dates
  • É parte de: Quaternary science reviews, 2018-05, Vol.188, p.58-66
  • Descrição: Reliable chronologies are essential for most Quaternary studies, but little is known about how age-depth model choice, as well as dating density and quality, affect the precision and accuracy of chronologies. A meta-analysis suggests that most existing late-Quaternary studies contain fewer than one date per millennium, and provide millennial-scale precision at best. We use existing and simulated sediment cores to estimate what dating density and quality are required to obtain accurate chronologies at a desired precision. For many sites, a doubling in dating density would significantly improve chronologies and thus their value for reconstructing and interpreting past environmental changes. Commonly used classical age-depth models stop becoming more precise after a minimum dating density is reached, but the precision of Bayesian age-depth models which take advantage of chronological ordering continues to improve with more dates. Our simulations show that classical age-depth models severely underestimate uncertainty and are inaccurate at low dating densities, and also perform poorly at high dating densities. On the other hand, Bayesian age-depth models provide more realistic precision estimates, including at low to average dating densities, and are much more robust against dating scatter and outliers. Indeed, Bayesian age-depth models outperform classical ones at all tested dating densities, qualities and time-scales. We recommend that chronologies should be produced using Bayesian age-depth models taking into account chronological ordering and based on a minimum of 2 dates per millennium.
  • Editor: Elsevier Ltd
  • Idioma: Inglês
Voltar para lista de resultados

  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

Buscando em bases de dados remotas. Favor aguardar.