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Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

Annis, A. ; Nardi, F. ; Volpi, E. ; Fiori, A.

Hydrological sciences journal, 2020-03, Vol.65 (4), p.507-523 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Abingdon: Taylor & Francis

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Título:
Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps
Autor: Annis, A. ; Nardi, F. ; Volpi, E. ; Fiori, A.
Assuntos: Catchment area ; Computer simulation ; Design rainfall ; Environmental risk ; Flood management ; Flood mapping ; Flood risk ; Floodplains ; Floods ; Forecasting ; hydraulic modelling ; Hydraulic models ; Hydraulics ; hydrologic modelling ; Hydrologic models ; Hydrology ; Modelling ; Parameterization ; Rain ; Rainfall ; Rainfall estimation ; Rainfall simulators ; Rainfall-runoff estimation ; Rainfall-runoff modeling ; Risk management ; River basins ; Rivers ; Roughness ; Runoff ; Statistical methods ; Two dimensional models ; Uncertainty ; Uncertainty analysis ; Zoning
É parte de: Hydrological sciences journal, 2020-03, Vol.65 (4), p.507-523
Descrição: Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall-runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.
Editor: Abingdon: Taylor & Francis
Idioma: Inglês

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Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

Annis, A. ; Nardi, F. ; Volpi, E. ; Fiori, A.

Abingdon: Taylor & Francis

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