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Expert elicitation on paths to advance fuel cell electric vehicles

Whiston, Michael M. ; Lima Azevedo, Inês M. ; Litster, Shawn ; Samaras, Constantine ; Whitefoot, Kate S. ; Whitacre, Jay F.

Energy policy, 2022-01, Vol.160, p.112671, Article 112671 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

Kidlington: Elsevier Ltd

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Title:
Expert elicitation on paths to advance fuel cell electric vehicles
Author: Whiston, Michael M. ; Lima Azevedo, Inês M. ; Litster, Shawn ; Samaras, Constantine ; Whitefoot, Kate S. ; Whitacre, Jay F.
Subjects: Alternative fuel vehicles ; Automatic vehicle identification systems ; Automation ; Carbon ; Cost ; Costs ; Deployment ; Driving ; Electric vehicles ; Elicitation ; Emissions ; Energy policy ; Expectations ; Expert elicitation ; Experts ; Fuel cells ; Fuel technology ; Fuels ; Hydrogen ; Infrastructure ; Policy ; Production ; Proton exchange membrane fuel cell ; R&D ; Refueling ; Research & development ; Respondents ; Sales ; Technology ; Vehicle automation ; Vehicles
Is Part Of: Energy policy, 2022-01, Vol.160, p.112671, Article 112671
Description: While fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) fueled by hydrogen produced using low-carbon processes could considerably reduce carbon emissions from transportation, FCEVs are produced at low volume, are expensive to manufacture, and lack widespread refueling infrastructure. To inform advancement pathways for FCEVs, we conducted an expert elicitation on vehicle costs and performance at anticipated production volumes, governmental actions to advance FCEVs, anticipated sales of FCEVs equipped with an automated driving system (ADS), and anticipated infrastructure deployments. Between 2020 and 2035, experts assessed a three-fold decline in fuel cell system costs to $60/kW and over an order of magnitude increase in production volume to 225,000 systems/year. Levelized costs of driving were assesed at $0.25–$0.90/mile and $0.17–$0.65/mile in 2035 and 2050, respectively. FCEVs could constitute a considerable share of ADS-equipped vehicle sales depending on cost and performance trajectories of automated driving technology and electric vehicles. Experts identified regulatory and incentive-based policies as important governmental actions to advance FCEVs and recommended hydrogen, fuel cells, and technology deployment activities each receive at least 20% of government research and development funding. Medians of experts' U.S. refueling station deployment assessments were 500 and 2,000 stations cumulative in 2030 and 2040, respectively. The middle 50% of respondents anticipated 2030 cumulative FCEV deployments in China of 100,000–1 million. •Experts assessed fuel cell electric vehicle costs, deployments, and policies.•Expected costs declined three-fold and production grew twenty-fold from 2025 to 2035.•Fuel cells were expected to power most new automation-equipped vehicles by 2050.•Regulatory and incentive-based policies were identified as important actions.•Cumulative deployments in China will likely reach 100,000 vehicles by 2030.
Publisher: Kidlington: Elsevier Ltd
Language: English

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Expert elicitation on paths to advance fuel cell electric vehicles

Whiston, Michael M. ; Lima Azevedo, Inês M. ; Litster, Shawn ; Samaras, Constantine ; Whitefoot, Kate S. ; Whitacre, Jay F.

Kidlington: Elsevier Ltd

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