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Maximizing the Expected Value of a Lottery Ticket: How to Sell and When to Buy

Kim, Allen ; Skiena, Steven

Chance (New York), 2020-01, Vol.33 (1), p.30-37 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Abingdon: Taylor & Francis

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  • Título:
    Maximizing the Expected Value of a Lottery Ticket: How to Sell and When to Buy
  • Autor: Kim, Allen ; Skiena, Steven
  • Assuntos: Combinatorial analysis ; Combinatorics ; Consumer behavior ; Expected values ; Gambling ; Lotteries ; Maximization ; Optimization ; Players ; Pools ; Probability ; Tickets
  • É parte de: Chance (New York), 2020-01, Vol.33 (1), p.30-37
  • Descrição: Kim and Skiena discuss the maximization of the expected value of lottery ticket. With players attracted by the potential winnings from enormous lottery pools, multistate lotteries like Mega Millions and Powerball sell millions of tickets each week across the US. Larger lottery pools attract more sales, but the expected value of a particular lottery ticket is a function of combinatorics, pool size, and consumer behavior. Calculating the probability of winning a lottery is a standard exercise in combinatorics. Each ticket for the Powerball lottery contains six numbers where the grand prize requires selecting all of these numbers correctly. On January 13, 2016, it reached a record high of $1.586 billion. Players like to win, but they do not like to share. Even the largest lottery pool will yield a disappointing payoff if too many players independently select the winning ticket. Having multiple winners also becomes a genuine risk once the pools get big enough. Here, a practical scheme to increase the likelihood of single winners is proposed and analyzed.
  • Editor: Abingdon: Taylor & Francis
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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