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Modeling population viability for the desert tortoise in the Western Mojave desert

Doak, Daniel ; Kareiva, Peter ; Klepetka, Brad

Ecological applications, 1994-08, Vol.4 (3), p.446-460 [Periódico revisado por pares]

The Ecological Society of America

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Título:
Modeling population viability for the desert tortoise in the Western Mojave desert
Autor: Doak, Daniel ; Kareiva, Peter ; Klepetka, Brad
Assuntos: CALIFORNIA ; CALIFORNIE ; Correlations ; DEMOGRAFIA ; DEMOGRAPHIE ; DEMOGRAPHY ; DESERT ; DESERTS ; DESIERTOS ; ECOLOGIA ; ECOLOGIE ; ECOLOGY ; ENDANGERED SPECIES ; ESPECE EN DANGER ; ESPECIES EN PELIGRO DE EXTINCION ; EVOLUCION DE LA POBLACION ; EVOLUTION DE LA POPULATION ; GOPHERUS ; GOPHERUS AGASSIZII ; HABITAT ; HABITAT DESTRUCTION ; HABITATS ; MODELE DE SIMULATION ; MODELOS DE SIMULACION ; Mortality ; POPULATION DECREASE ; POPULATION DYNAMICS ; POPULATION ECOLOGY ; POPULATION GROWTH ; Population growth rate ; Population size ; SIMULATION MODELS ; TORTOISES ; TORTUE TERRESTRE ; TORTUGA ; Viability ; Yearlings
É parte de: Ecological applications, 1994-08, Vol.4 (3), p.446-460
Notas: P01
9503960
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Descrição: The desert tortoise is a threatened species living in the deserts of the American Southwest. Using size-structured demographic models, we analyzed the status of the tortoise in the Western Mojave desert and evaluated the effectiveness of possible management measures. Our demographic analyses agree with the trends reported by field censuses in showing rapid population decline. Importantly, simulations that include variation and correlation in vital rates yield highly variable forecasts of population growth, indicating the uncertainties inherent in even short-term projections of tortoise population sizes. To determine where conservation efforts and data collection should be focused, we performed a series of sensitivity analyses in which the effects of changing different vital rates were quantified. We found that the rate of population growth is most sensitive to the survival of large adult females and that improving survival of this size class to reputably @'pristine@' rates could reverse population declines; in contrast, large improvements in other vital rates will not, alone, reverse population decline. Thus, shooting, off-road vehicles, upper respiratory tract disease (URTD), and other major sources of adult mortality should be the primary focus of management strategies. Finally, we discuss the impact of the proposed expansion of the U.S. Army's Fort Irwin, which would reduce the Western Mojave tortoise population by @<13%. We argue that the expansion could have a grave impact on the long-term population viability of the tortoise, but that this impact will be a function of the management of remaining tortoise habitat. We conclude that, although many anthropogenic impacts threaten the tortoise, the species' future could be bright, provided that research and land-use planning focus on biologically important aspects of its life history.
Editor: The Ecological Society of America
Idioma: Inglês

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Modeling population viability for the desert tortoise in the Western Mojave desert

Doak, Daniel ; Kareiva, Peter ; Klepetka, Brad

The Ecological Society of America

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