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Disentangling the numbers behind agriculture-driven tropical deforestation

Pendrill, Florence ; Gardner, Toby A. ; Meyfroidt, Patrick ; Persson, U. Martin ; Adams, Justin ; Azevedo, Tasso ; Bastos Lima, Mairon G. ; Baumann, Matthias ; Curtis, Philip G. ; De Sy, Veronique ; Garrett, Rachael ; Godar, Javier ; Goldman, Elizabeth Dow ; Hansen, Matthew C. ; Heilmayr, Robert ; Herold, Martin ; Kuemmerle, Tobias ; Lathuillière, Michael J. ; Ribeiro, Vivian ; Tyukavina, Alexandra ; Weisse, Mikaela J. ; West, Chris

Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2022-09, Vol.377 (6611), p.eabm9267-eabm9267 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Washington: The American Association for the Advancement of Science

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  • Título:
    Disentangling the numbers behind agriculture-driven tropical deforestation
  • Autor: Pendrill, Florence ; Gardner, Toby A. ; Meyfroidt, Patrick ; Persson, U. Martin ; Adams, Justin ; Azevedo, Tasso ; Bastos Lima, Mairon G. ; Baumann, Matthias ; Curtis, Philip G. ; De Sy, Veronique ; Garrett, Rachael ; Godar, Javier ; Goldman, Elizabeth Dow ; Hansen, Matthew C. ; Heilmayr, Robert ; Herold, Martin ; Kuemmerle, Tobias ; Lathuillière, Michael J. ; Ribeiro, Vivian ; Tyukavina, Alexandra ; Weisse, Mikaela J. ; West, Chris
  • Assuntos: Agricultural expansion ; Agricultural land ; Agricultural production ; Agriculture ; Availability ; Biodiversity ; Biodiversity loss ; Case studies ; Cassava ; Cereals ; Clearing ; Cocoa ; Coffee ; Commodities ; Deforestation ; Ecosystem degradation ; Ecosystem services ; Emissions ; Evidence ; Forest ecosystems ; Forest fires ; Forests ; Greenhouse gases ; Land tenure ; Land use ; Landscape ; Literature reviews ; Pasture ; Rural areas ; Rural development ; Rural Population ; Supply chains ; Sustainable development ; Synthesis ; Trends ; Tropical environments ; Tropical forests ; Uncertainty
  • É parte de: Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2022-09, Vol.377 (6611), p.eabm9267-eabm9267
  • Notas: ObjectType-Article-2
    SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
    ObjectType-Feature-3
    content type line 23
    ObjectType-Review-1
  • Descrição: Tropical deforestation continues at alarming rates with profound impacts on ecosystems, climate, and livelihoods, prompting renewed commitments to halt its continuation. Although it is well established that agriculture is a dominant driver of deforestation, rates and mechanisms remain disputed and often lack a clear evidence base. We synthesize the best available pantropical evidence to provide clarity on how agriculture drives deforestation. Although most (90 to 99%) deforestation across the tropics 2011 to 2015 was driven by agriculture, only 45 to 65% of deforested land became productive agriculture within a few years. Therefore, ending deforestation likely requires combining measures to create deforestation-free supply chains with landscape governance interventions. We highlight key remaining evidence gaps including deforestation trends, commodity-specific land-use dynamics, and data from tropical dry forests and forests across Africa. Forest loss for food Agricultural expansion is recognized as a major driver of forest loss in the tropics. However, accurate data on the links between agriculture and tropical deforestation are lacking. Pendrill et al . synthesized existing research and datasets to quantify the extent to which tropical deforestation from 2011 to 2015 was associated with agriculture. They estimated that at least 90% of deforested land occurred in landscapes where agriculture drove forest loss, but only about half was converted into productive agricultural land. Data availability and trends vary across regions, suggesting complex links between agriculture and forest loss. —BEL A review shows that most tropical deforestation is associated, directly or indirectly, with agriculture. BACKGROUND Agricultural expansion is a primary cause of tropical deforestation and therefore a key driver of greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity loss, and the degradation of ecosystem services vital to the livelihoods of forest-dependent and rural people. However, agriculture-driven deforestation can take many forms, from the direct expansion of pastures and cropland into forests to more complex or indirect pathways. A clear understanding of the different ways in which agriculture drives deforestation is essential for designing effective policy responses. To address this need we provide a review of the literature on pantropical agriculture-driven deforestation and synthesize the best available evidence to quantify dominant agricultural land-use changes relating to deforestation. We consider the policy implications of this assessment, especially for burgeoning demand-side and supply-chain interventions seeking to address deforestation. ADVANCES New methods and data have advanced our understanding of deforestation and subsequent land uses. However, only a handful of studies estimate agriculture-driven deforestation across the entirety of the tropics. Although these studies agree that agriculture is the dominant land use following forest clearing, their estimates of pantropical rates of agriculture-driven deforestation during the period 2011 to 2015 vary greatly—between 4.3 and 9.6 million hectares (Mha) per year—with our synthesized estimate being 6.4 to 8.8 Mha per year. This apparent uncertainty in the amount of agriculture-driven deforestation can be disentangled by distinguishing between the different ways in which agriculture contributes to deforestation; we find that while the overwhelming majority (90 to 99%) of tropical deforestation occurs in landscapes where agriculture is the dominant driver of tree cover loss, a smaller share (45 to 65%) of deforestation is due to the expansion of active agricultural production into forests. Multiple lines of evidence show that the remainder of agriculture-driven deforestation does not result in the expansion of productive agricultural land but instead is a result of activities such as speculative clearing, land tenure issues, short-lived and abandoned agriculture, and agriculture-related fires spreading to adjacent forests. Different land uses and commodities often interact to drive deforestation. However, pasture expansion is the most important driver by far, accounting for around half of the deforestation resulting in agricultural production across the tropics. Oil palm and soy cultivation together account for at least a fifth, and six other crops—rubber, cocoa, coffee, rice, maize, and cassava—likely account for most of the remainder, with large regional variations and higher levels of uncertainty. OUTLOOK This Review points to three key areas where a stronger evidence base would advance global efforts to curb agriculture-driven deforestation: First, consistent pantropical data on deforestation trends are lacking. This limits our ability to assess overall progress on reducing deforestation and account for leakage across regions. Second, with the exception of soy and oil palm the attribution of deforestation to forest risk commodities is often based on coarse-grained agricultural statistics, outdated or modeled maps, or local case studies. Third, uncertainties are greatest in dry and seasonal tropics and across the African continent in particular. This assessment highlights that although public and private policies promoting deforestation-free international supply chains have a critical role to play, their ability to reduce deforestation on the ground is fundamentally limited. One-third to one-half of agriculture-driven deforestation does not result in actively managed agricultural land. Moreover, the majority—approximately three-quarters—of the expansion of agriculture into forests is driven by domestic demand in producer countries, especially for beef and cereals, including much of the deforestation across the African continent. These data suggest that the potential for international supply chain measures to help reduce tropical deforestation is more likely to be achieved through interventions in deforestation risk areas that focus on strengthening sustainable rural development and territorial governance. Agriculture contributes to deforestation in many ways which often interact. Most tropical deforestation occurs in landscapes where agriculture is the dominant driver of forest loss. Part of this agriculture-driven deforestation results in agricultural production (left) meeting domestic and export demand for various agricultural commodities. However, agriculture-driven deforestation also occurs without expansion of managed agricultural land through several mechanisms (right), which may lead to the deforested area being abandoned or semi-abandoned. Incomplete agricultural records also explain a share of such deforestation.
  • Editor: Washington: The American Association for the Advancement of Science
  • Idioma: Inglês
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