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Understanding the weather signal in national crop‐yield variability

Frieler, Katja ; Schauberger, Bernhard ; Arneth, Almut ; Balkovič, Juraj ; Chryssanthacopoulos, James ; Deryng, Delphine ; Elliott, Joshua ; Folberth, Christian ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Müller, Christoph ; Olin, Stefan ; Pugh, Thomas A. M. ; Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Schewe, Jacob ; Schmid, Erwin ; Warszawski, Lila ; Levermann, Anders

Earth's future, 2017-06, Vol.5 (6), p.605-616 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Hoboken, USA: Wiley Periodicals, Inc

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Título:
Understanding the weather signal in national crop‐yield variability
Autor: Frieler, Katja ; Schauberger, Bernhard ; Arneth, Almut ; Balkovič, Juraj ; Chryssanthacopoulos, James ; Deryng, Delphine ; Elliott, Joshua ; Folberth, Christian ; Khabarov, Nikolay ; Müller, Christoph ; Olin, Stefan ; Pugh, Thomas A. M. ; Schaphoff, Sibyll ; Schewe, Jacob ; Schmid, Erwin ; Warszawski, Lila ; Levermann, Anders
Assuntos: Agricultural production ; Agricultural Sciences ; Annan lantbruksvetenskap ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climate Research ; Climatology ; Computer simulation ; Corn ; Crop yield ; Crop yield variability ; Crops ; Damage ; Developing countries ; Earth and Related Environmental Sciences ; Empirical models ; Environmental Sciences related to Agriculture and Land-use ; Farming ; Fluctuations ; Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap ; Irrigation ; Klimatforskning ; Lantbruksvetenskap och veterinärmedicin ; LDCs ; Miljö- och naturvårdsvetenskap ; Natural Sciences ; Naturvetenskap ; Other Agricultural Sciences ; Pests ; Subsistence agriculture ; Variability ; Variance ; Water stress ; Weather ; Weather conditions ; Weather sensitivity ; Weeds ; Wheat
É parte de: Earth's future, 2017-06, Vol.5 (6), p.605-616
Descrição: Year‐to‐year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather‐induced crop‐yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state‐of‐the‐art, process‐based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop‐yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process‐based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human‐management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations. Key Points Process‐based crop models forced by observational weather data can explain more than 50% of reported yield fluctuations in some major producing countries Water limitation seems to be major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries No single model provides the highest explained variance in all regions, but ranks significantly differ from region to region.
Editor: Hoboken, USA: Wiley Periodicals, Inc
Idioma: Inglês

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Understanding the weather signal in national crop‐yield variability

Hoboken, USA: Wiley Periodicals, Inc

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