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Trend and prediction of fatality due to occupational injuries in China

Xu, Ting ; Mo, Youhua ; Meng, Shidi ; Zhu, Xiaojun

Huan jing yu zhi ye yi xue = Journal of environmental & occupational medicine, 2023, Vol.40 (10), p.1128-1134 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Shanghai: Shanghai Municipal Center For Disease Control and Prevention

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  • Título:
    Trend and prediction of fatality due to occupational injuries in China
  • Autor: Xu, Ting ; Mo, Youhua ; Meng, Shidi ; Zhu, Xiaojun
  • Assuntos: death ; Fatalities ; Females ; gray model ; Injuries ; Injury analysis ; Injury prevention ; join-point model ; Males ; Model accuracy ; Mortality ; Occupational accidents ; Occupational health ; occupational injury ; Occupational safety ; Predictions ; trend analysis
  • É parte de: Huan jing yu zhi ye yi xue = Journal of environmental & occupational medicine, 2023, Vol.40 (10), p.1128-1134
  • Descrição: [Background] Occupational injury is one of the important causes of death among the working population and a worldwide hot topic, but there are few relevant studies on the trend and prediction of occupational injury attributable deaths in China.[Objective] To analyze the trend of occupational injury attributable deaths in China from 2000 to2019, predict the deaths of occupational injuries in China from 2020 to 2024 by contructing a gray GM（1,1） model, and provid a reference for surveillance and assessment of occupational injuries.[Methods] Mortality, crude mortality rates, and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China by year, sex, and age groups were calculated using data of the Global Burden of Disease（GBD） 2019 study. Join-point model was used to analyze possible trend of standardized mortality rate from 2000 to 2019, and calculate annual percentage change（APC） and average annual percentage change（AAPC）. After a gray model GM（1,1） was established, the accuracy of the model was evaluated by posterior error ratio（C） and small error probability（P） and rated as Level 1（good, C≤0.35 and P≥0.95） or Level 2（qualified, 0.35 ＜ C≤0.50 and 0.80≤P ＜ 0.95）. Then the gray model was further used to predict the number of deaths and standardized mortality rates of occupational injuries in China from2020 to 2024.[Results] From 2000 to 2019, the deaths due to occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, the number of deaths decreased from 111 557 to 61 780, the crude mortality rate decreased from 8.58/100 000 to 4.34/100 000, the standardized mortality rate decreased from 7.67/100 000 to 3.65/100 000, and the AAPC of standardized mortality rate was-4.0%（P ＜ 0.05）; the number of male deaths decreased from 87 760 to 49 192, and the male standardized mortality rate decreased from 11.78/100 000 to 5.68/100 000; the number of female deaths decreased from 23 797 to 12 588, and the female standardized mortality rate decreased from 3.34/100 000 to 1.55/100 000; the AAPCs of male and female standardized mortality rate were-3.9% and-4.1% respectively. The accuracy of the established gray model for deaths（C=0.09, P=1） was rated as Level 1, and that for standardized mortality rate（C=0.41, P=0.9） was rated as level 2, which allowed for prediction extrapolation. The model showed that from 2020 to 2024, the number of occupational injury attributable deaths would be 76 039,73 849, 71 721, 69 655, and 67 649, and the standardized mortality rate would be 4.23/100 000, 4.07/100 000, 3.92/100 000, 3.77/100 000,and 3.62/100 000, respectively.[Conclusion] From 2000 to 2019, the standardized mortality rate of occupational injuries in China showed a downward trend, and it is predicted that the standardized mortality rate from 2020 to 2024 will still show a downward trend, but the number of deaths will remain high, so it is necessary to continue to strengthen prevention and control of occupational injuries.
  • Editor: Shanghai: Shanghai Municipal Center For Disease Control and Prevention
  • Idioma: Chinês;Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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