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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal?

Shaman, Jeffrey ; Lipsitch, Marc

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2013-02, Vol.110 (Supplement 1), p.3689-3691 [Revista revisada por pares]

Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences

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Título:
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal?
Autor: Shaman, Jeffrey ; Lipsitch, Marc
Materias: Animal Migration ; Animals ; Biological and medical sciences ; Birds ; Birds - virology ; COLLOQUIUM PAPERS ; El Nino ; El Nino-Southern Oscillation ; Epidemics ; Fostering Advances in Interdisciplinary Climate Science Sackler ; Human influenza ; Human viral diseases ; Humans ; Infections ; Infectious diseases ; Influenza ; Influenza, Human - epidemiology ; La Nina ; Medical sciences ; Ocean currents ; Orthomyxoviridae ; Orthomyxoviridae - pathogenicity ; Pacific Ocean ; Pandemics ; Population genetics ; Temperature ; Viral diseases ; Viral diseases of the respiratory system and ent viral diseases ; Viruses ; Wild birds
Es parte de: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2013-02, Vol.110 (Supplement 1), p.3689-3691
Notas: http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1107485109
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Author contributions: J.S. designed research; J.S. performed research; J.S. and M.L. analyzed data; and J.S. and M.L. wrote the paper.
Edited by Rita R. Colwell, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, and approved September 19, 2011 (received for review May 26, 2011)
Descripción: We find that the four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009), all of which were first identified in boreal spring or summer, were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Changes in the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation have been shown to alter the migration, stopover time, fitness, and interspecies mixing of migratory birds, and consequently, likely affect their mixing with domestic animals. We hypothesize that La Niña conditions bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world and favor the reassortment of influenza through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts and the generation of novel pandemic strains. We propose approaches to test this hypothesis using influenza population genetics, virus prevalence in various host species, and avian migration patterns.
Editor: Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences
Idioma: Inglés

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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal?

Shaman, Jeffrey ; Lipsitch, Marc

Washington, DC: National Academy of Sciences

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