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Potential impacts of climate change on the productivity and soil carbon stocks of managed grasslands

Puche, N J B ; Kirschbaum, M U F ; Viovy, N ; Chabbi, Abad Liu, Jian

PloS one, 2023-04, Vol.18 (4), p.e0283370-e0283370 [Peer Reviewed Journal]

United States: Public Library of Science

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Title:
Potential impacts of climate change on the productivity and soil carbon stocks of managed grasslands
Author: Puche, N J B ; Kirschbaum, M U F ; Viovy, N ; Chabbi, Abad
Liu, Jian
Subjects: Agricultural practices ; Agricultural production ; Agricultural productivity ; Agriculture ; Biology and Life Sciences ; Biomass ; Carbon ; Carbon content ; Carbon cycle ; Carbon Dioxide ; Carbon dioxide concentration ; Carbon sequestration ; Climate Change ; Climate models ; Climatic changes ; Climatic conditions ; Climatic extremes ; Dairy industry ; Drought ; Earth Sciences ; Ecology and Environmental Sciences ; Economic aspects ; Ecosystem ; Ecosystem models ; Ecosystems ; Emissions ; Environmental aspects ; Environmental changes ; Environmental impact ; Environmental management ; Environmental Sciences ; Fertilizer application ; Fertilizer applications ; Fertilizers ; Food ; Food supply ; Global Changes ; Global temperature changes ; Grassland ; Grasslands ; Greenhouse gases ; Heat waves ; Influence ; International economic relations ; Life Sciences ; Medicine and Health Sciences ; Meteorological conditions ; Milk ; Milk production ; Modelling ; Nitrogen ; Observatories ; Organic carbon ; Organic soils ; Pastoralism ; Phenology ; Physical Sciences ; Precipitation ; Precipitation (Meteorology) ; Productivity ; Rain ; Rainfall ; Respiration ; Senescence ; Soil ; Soils ; Stocks ; Weather
Is Part Of: PloS one, 2023-04, Vol.18 (4), p.e0283370-e0283370
Notes: ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Description: Rain-fed pastoral systems are tightly connected to meteorological conditions. It is, therefore, likely that climate change, including changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, precipitation and patterns of climate extremes, will greatly affect pastoral systems. However, exact impacts on the productivity and carbon dynamics of these systems are still poorly understood, particularly over longtime scales. The present study assesses the potential effects of future climatic conditions on productivity and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks of mowed and rotationally grazed grasslands in France. We used the CenW ecosystem model to simulate carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in response to changes in environmental drivers and management practices. We first evaluated model responses to individual changes in each key meteorological variable to get better insights into the role and importance of each individual variable. Then, we used 3 sets of meteorological variables corresponding to 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for long-term model runs from 1975 to 2100. Finally, we used the same three RCPs to analyze the responses of modelled grasslands to extreme climate events. We found that increasing temperature slightly increased grasslands productivities but strongly reduced SOC stocks. A reduction in precipitation led to reductions of biomass and milk production but increased SOC. Conversely, doubling CO2 concentration strongly increased biomass and milk production and marginally reduced SOC. These SOC trends were unexpected. They arose because both increasing precipitation and CO2 increased photosynthetic carbon gain, but they had an even greater effect on the proportion of biomass that could be grazed. The amount of carbon remaining on site and able to contribute to SOC formation was actually reduced under both higher precipitation and CO2. The simulations under the three RCPs indicated that grassland productivity was increased, but that required higher N fertilizer application rates and also led to substantial SOC losses. We thus conclude that, while milk productivity may continue at current rates under climate change, or even increase slightly, there could be some soil C losses over the 21st century. In addition, under the highest-emission scenario, the increasing importance of extreme climate conditions (heat waves and droughts) might render conditions at our site in some years as unsuitable for milk production. It highlights the importance of tailoring farming practices to achieve the dual goals of maintaining agricultural production while safeguarding soil C stocks.
Publisher: United States: Public Library of Science
Language: English

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Potential impacts of climate change on the productivity and soil carbon stocks of managed grasslands

Puche, N J B ; Kirschbaum, M U F ; Viovy, N ; Chabbi, Abad Liu, Jian

United States: Public Library of Science

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