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Why 2015 was a strong El Niño and 2014 was not

Wang, Guomin ; Hendon, Harry H.

Geophysical research letters, 2017-08, Vol.44 (16), p.8567-8575 [Revista revisada por pares]

Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc

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  • Título:
    Why 2015 was a strong El Niño and 2014 was not
  • Autor: Wang, Guomin ; Hendon, Harry H.
  • Materias: atmosphere‐ocean interaction ; Atmospheric conditions ; El Nino ; El Nino phenomena ; El Niño 2014 ; El Niño 2015 ; El Niño dynamics ; Growth ; Pacific mean state ; Tropical climate
  • Es parte de: Geophysical research letters, 2017-08, Vol.44 (16), p.8567-8575
  • Descripción: Anomalous oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific were similar in the early months of 2014 and 2015, both apparently favoring onset of El Niño. Despite high expectations, the 2014 event did not truly take hold, but the 2015 event developed into a very strong El Niño. Here we argue that mean state differences played important roles in promoting El Niño in 2015 and not favoring growth in 2014. We show that the mean state difference in the Pacific between 2015 and 2014 was similar to the shift from cold phase to warm phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). We demonstrate that this mean state change affected El Niño development between the two years using a forecast sensitivity experiment. The cold IPO‐like mean state during 2014 acted to reduce the coupled feedbacks, while the warm IPO‐like mean state of 2015 acted to enhance the coupled feedbacks. Key Points The 2014 El Niño did not develop as anticipated, and the 2015 El Niño was a very strong event The Pacific mean state appeared shifted from cold to warm phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in 2014 Sensitivity experiments suggest that the ocean‐atmospheric feedback differences play important roles in modulating El Niño in the two years
  • Editor: Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc
  • Idioma: Inglés
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