skip to main content
Idioma:
Primo Search
Clear Search Box
Search in: Busca Geral
Busca Avançada
Busca por Índices

Un análisis de cambio estructural en la persistencia de la inflación en México usando la regresión cuantílica

Acosta, Marco A

Trimestre económico, 2018-01, Vol.85 (1), p.169-193 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Tlalpan: Fondo de Cultura Económica

Texto completo disponível

Citações Citado por
  • Título:
    Un análisis de cambio estructural en la persistencia de la inflación en México usando la regresión cuantílica
  • Autor: Acosta, Marco A
  • Assuntos: Behavior ; Central banks ; Changes ; Distribution ; Economic policy ; Inflation ; Inflation targeting ; Long term ; Policy making ; Regression analysis ; Studies ; Variability
  • É parte de: Trimestre económico, 2018-01, Vol.85 (1), p.169-193
  • Descrição: It is well documented that inflation persistence in Mexico has experienced an unstable behavior through time at the conditional mean distribution. However, its behavior at conditional quantiles of the distribution have been not explored. This study determines the periods in which inflation persistence in Mexico presented structural changes in its conditional distribution using a quantile regression approach. Additionally, the article examines for each period, if inflation follows a stationary behavior using the Quantile Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, estimate the persistence of inflation shocks, and analyze if inflation is converging to the long-term inflation target of 3% impose by the Central Bank. The episodes found coincided with periods when Mexico's economic policies underwent drastic changes that altered the price formation process. The evidence indicates that inflation shocks present an asymmetric behavior, while high magnitude negative shocks rapidly vanish, high magnitude positive shocks tend to be long lasting. Inflation converged to a stationary process in all its conditional quantiles under the inflation targeting regime. Besides, since 2009 the hypothesis that inflation adjusted for seasonal effects remains within the range variability of ± 1% point of the long-term inflation target of three percent cannot be statistically rejected. The quantile regression is a useful and convenient statistical tool to analyze inflation persistence. In particular, it gives a clear picture about the periods in which inflation changed, and on the impact of inflation shocks in a specific quantile.
  • Editor: Tlalpan: Fondo de Cultura Económica
  • Idioma: Espanhol
Voltar para lista de resultados

  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

Buscando em bases de dados remotas. Favor aguardar.