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Aridity indices to assess desertification susceptibility: a methodological approach using gridded climate data and cartographic modeling

dos Santos, Janaína Cassiano ; Lyra, Gustavo Bastos ; Abreu, Marcel Carvalho ; de Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco ; Bohn, Leonardo ; Cunha-Zeri, Gisleine ; Zeri, Marcelo

Natural hazards (Dordrecht), 2022-04, Vol.111 (3), p.2531-2558 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands

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Título:
Aridity indices to assess desertification susceptibility: a methodological approach using gridded climate data and cartographic modeling
Autor: dos Santos, Janaína Cassiano ; Lyra, Gustavo Bastos ; Abreu, Marcel Carvalho ; de Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco ; Bohn, Leonardo ; Cunha-Zeri, Gisleine ; Zeri, Marcelo
Assuntos: Air temperature ; Aridity ; Cartography ; Civil Engineering ; Climate ; Climate models ; Climatic data ; Climatic indexes ; Climatology ; Desertification ; Earth and Environmental Science ; Earth Sciences ; Environmental degradation ; Environmental Management ; Evapotranspiration ; Geophysics/Geodesy ; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences ; Global precipitation ; Historic temperatures ; Humid areas ; Humid climates ; Hydrogeology ; Identification ; Land use ; Meteorology ; Modelling ; Natural Hazards ; Original Paper ; Potential evapotranspiration ; Precipitation ; Subhumid climates ; Susceptibility ; Temperature data ; Weather stations
É parte de: Natural hazards (Dordrecht), 2022-04, Vol.111 (3), p.2531-2558
Descrição: Desertification is a land degradation phenomenon with dire and irreversible consequences, affecting different regions of the world. Assessment of spatial climate susceptibility to desertification requires long-term averages of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). An alternative to desertification susceptibility analysis is the use of spatially gridded climate data. The aim of this study was to assess an approach based on gridded climate data and cartographic modeling to characterize climate susceptibility to desertification over Southeast Brazil. Two indices were used to identify climate desertification susceptibility: the aridity index I a (P/PET) and D (PET/P). Precipitation gridded data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), and air temperature from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) were used. The PET was estimated by the Thornthwaite’s method using air temperature data. The assessment of these gridded climate series, PET and indices was performed using independent observed climate series (1961–2010) from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) of Brazil—(68 weather stations). Determination coefficient ( r 2 ) and the Willmott’s coefficient ( d ) between gridded and observed data revealed satisfactory precision and agreement for grids of precipitation ( r 2 > 0.93, d > 0.90), air temperature ( r 2 > 0.94, d > 0.53) and PET ( r 2 > 0.93, d > 0.63). Overall, the aridity indices based on climate gridded presented good performance when used to identify areas susceptible to desertification. Susceptible areas to desertification were identified by the index I a over the Northern regions of Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro states. No susceptible areas to desertification were identified using the index D . However, both indices indicated large areas of sub-humid climate, which can be strongly affected by desertification in the future.
Editor: Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands
Idioma: Inglês

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Aridity indices to assess desertification susceptibility: a methodological approach using gridded climate data and cartographic modeling

dos Santos, Janaína Cassiano ; Lyra, Gustavo Bastos ; Abreu, Marcel Carvalho ; de Oliveira-Júnior, José Francisco ; Bohn, Leonardo ; Cunha-Zeri, Gisleine ; Zeri, Marcelo

Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands

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