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Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election

Choi, Jaerim ; Lim, Sunghun

American journal of agricultural economics, 2023-08, Vol.105 (4), p.1149-1175 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Boston, USA: Wiley Periodicals, Inc

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  • Título:
    Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election
  • Autor: Choi, Jaerim ; Lim, Sunghun
  • Assuntos: Agricultural economics ; Agricultural policy ; Agricultural products ; Agricultural subsidies ; agricultural subsidy ; Counties ; Direct payments ; Elections ; Farmers ; market facilitation program ; Patronage ; Payments ; Polarization ; political budget cycle ; political polarization ; Politics ; presidential election ; Presidential elections ; Presidents ; Rents ; Subsidies ; Tariffs ; Trade policy ; trade war ; Universe
  • É parte de: American journal of agricultural economics, 2023-08, Vol.105 (4), p.1149-1175
  • Notas: We are grateful to JaeBin Ahn, Amy Ando, Marc Bellemare, Jeff Bloem, Mauro Caselli, Pablo Fajgelbaum, Rob Feenstra, Paola Giuliano, Joleen Hadrich, Tim Halliday, Jung Hur, Jay Hyun, Manho Kang, Jason Kerwin, Daeil Kim, Sunghyun Kim, Ilyana Kuziemko, Jungmin Lee, Sang‐Hyop Lee, Yuan Mei, Teresa Molina, Andrew Muhammad, Gopinath Munisamy, Marcus Noland, Giovanni Peri, Michael Roberts, Kadee Russ, Colette Salemi, Sandro Steinbach, Greg Wright, participants in numerous seminars and conferences, and three anonymous referees for their invaluable comments and suggestions.
  • Descrição: This paper provides evidence on the effects of US and Chinese trade policies on the 2020 US presidential election. In response to a series of US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, China imposed retaliatory tariffs, especially on US agricultural products, which largely affected Republican‐leaning counties. The US government then subsidized US farmers by providing direct payments through the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) to mitigate the Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Using the universe of actual county‐level MFP disbursement data, we document that MFP payments relative to the Chinese retaliatory tariff exposure were higher in solidly Republican counties, implying that the Trump administration allocated rents in exchange for political patronage. We also find that MFP payments outweighed the estimated impact of Chinese retaliatory tariffs and led to an increase in the Republican vote share in the 2020 presidential election. Finally, we uncover evidence that China's retaliatory trade policy and the corresponding US agricultural policy exacerbated political polarization in the US, especially the rural–urban divide.
  • Editor: Boston, USA: Wiley Periodicals, Inc
  • Idioma: Inglês
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  • Realização: ABCD-USP USP   Logos de Redes Sociais: Freepik

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