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Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

Berenguer, Juan ; Bellón, Jose M ; Jarrín, Inmaculada ; Díaz, Marta ; Trigo, Elena ; Bernardino, José I ; Izquierdo, Elsa ; Mestre, Beatriz ; Tebar, Ana J ; Alguacil, Ana ; José Blanco, M ; Álamo, Mikel del ; Carreres, Melissa ; Virto, Ianire ; Brea, Ruth ; Knobel, Hernando ; Sorli, Luisa ; García, Esther ; Arranz, Alberto ; Sáez, Paula ; Martín, Lidia ; Torralba, Miguel ; Ruano, Patricia González ; Rábago, Isabel ; Ramírez, Karim M ; Cañabate, Ana I ; Míguez, Enrique ; Salamanca, Elena ; Cuervo, Guillermo ; Niubó, Jordi ; Martínez, Raquel ; Gasch, Oriol ; Torres, Berta ; Soriano, Alex ; Carrasco, Nerea ; Prieto, Laura ; Alcántara, Francisco ; Portu, Joseba ; Corral, Miguel ; Iglesias, Laura ; Pérez-Jorge, Conchita ; Navas, Iván ; Lorén, María ; Muñoz, José R ; Naranjo, Virginia ; Alonso, Rodrigo ; Aránzazu Galindo, M ; Rico, Marta ; Cardona, Andrés F ; Piñero, Iván ; Urrutia, Ainhoa ; Caro, Sarah ; Mera, Arantzazu ; Fernández-Ruiz, Mario ; Gálvez-Benítez, Lydia ; Cantón, Rafael ; Oteo, José A ; Meijide, Héctor ; Ferrer, Anna ; de la Luz Padilla, M ; Hayek, Marcelino ; Rojas-Vieyra, Agustín ; Sanz, Camilo ; Izquierdo, Rebeca ; Ruiz-Alguero, Marta ; Rico-Nieto, A ; Prieto Arribas, D ; Fernández-Calle, P ; Alcaide, MJ ; Nuñez, R ; Rodriguez, M ; Martí de Gracia, M ; Fernández- Velilla, M ; Fernández, E ; Fernández, I ; González, M ; Lo-Iacono, V ; Reche, B ; Tejada, R ; Fabra, S ; González, O ; Iglesias, A ; Diaz Pollán, B ; Menéndez, A ; Moreno, V ; Mangas, A ; Perales, E ; Civantos, B ; Hernández, M ; Veganzones, J ; Castro, L ; Arribas, S ; Cascajares, C ; Galindo, P ; Ramírez, M ; Romero, L ; Valentín-Pastrana, M ; Seco, E ; Zubimendi, M ; Martín-Vega, A

Thorax, 2021-09, Vol.76 (9), p.920-929 [Periódico revisado por pares]

England: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Thoracic Society

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Título:
Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score
Autor: Berenguer, Juan ; Bellón, Jose M ; Jarrín, Inmaculada ; Díaz, Marta ; Trigo, Elena ; Bernardino, José I ; Izquierdo, Elsa ; Mestre, Beatriz ; Tebar, Ana J ; Alguacil, Ana ; José Blanco, M ; Álamo, Mikel del ; Carreres, Melissa ; Virto, Ianire ; Brea, Ruth ; Knobel, Hernando ; Sorli, Luisa ; García, Esther ; Arranz, Alberto ; Sáez, Paula ; Martín, Lidia ; Torralba, Miguel ; Ruano, Patricia González ; Rábago, Isabel ; Ramírez, Karim M ; Cañabate, Ana I ; Míguez, Enrique ; Salamanca, Elena ; Cuervo, Guillermo ; Niubó, Jordi ; Martínez, Raquel ; Gasch, Oriol ; Torres, Berta ; Soriano, Alex ; Carrasco, Nerea ; Prieto, Laura ; Alcántara, Francisco ; Portu, Joseba ; Corral, Miguel ; Iglesias, Laura ; Pérez-Jorge, Conchita ; Navas, Iván ; Lorén, María ; Muñoz, José R ; Naranjo, Virginia ; Alonso, Rodrigo ; Aránzazu Galindo, M ; Rico, Marta ; Cardona, Andrés F ; Piñero, Iván ; Urrutia, Ainhoa ; Caro, Sarah ; Mera, Arantzazu ; Fernández-Ruiz, Mario ; Gálvez-Benítez, Lydia ; Cantón, Rafael ; Oteo, José A ; Meijide, Héctor ; Ferrer, Anna ; de la Luz Padilla, M ; Hayek, Marcelino ; Rojas-Vieyra, Agustín ; Sanz, Camilo ; Izquierdo, Rebeca ; Ruiz-Alguero, Marta ; Rico-Nieto, A ; Prieto Arribas, D ; Fernández-Calle, P ; Alcaide, MJ ; Nuñez, R ; Rodriguez, M ; Martí de Gracia, M ; Fernández- Velilla, M ; Fernández, E ; Fernández, I ; González, M ; Lo-Iacono, V ; Reche, B ; Tejada, R ; Fabra, S ; González, O ; Iglesias, A ; Diaz Pollán, B ; Menéndez, A ; Moreno, V ; Mangas, A ; Perales, E ; Civantos, B ; Hernández, M ; Veganzones, J ; Castro, L ; Arribas, S ; Cascajares, C ; Galindo, P ; Ramírez, M ; Romero, L ; Valentín-Pastrana, M ; Seco, E ; Zubimendi, M ; Martín-Vega, A
Assuntos: Age ; Calibration ; clinical epidemiology ; Coronaviruses ; COVID-19 ; critical care ; Dyspnea ; emergency medicine ; Hospitals ; Infectious diseases ; Laboratories ; Lymphocytes ; Mortality ; Neutrophils ; pneumonia ; Respiratory Infection ; Sensitivity analysis ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 ; Systematic review ; Variables ; viral infection
É parte de: Thorax, 2021-09, Vol.76 (9), p.920-929
Notas: Original research
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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Descrição: ObjectiveTo develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms.DesignMultivariable prognostic prediction model.Setting127 Spanish hospitals.ParticipantsDerivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively.InterventionsPrognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression.Main outcome measures30-day mortality.ResultsPatients’ characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806–0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819–0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0–2 points (0%–2.1%), moderate with 3–5 (4.7%–6.3%), high with 6–8 (10.6%–19.5%) and very high with 9–30 (27.7%–100%).ConclusionsA simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.
Editor: England: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Thoracic Society
Idioma: Inglês

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Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

England: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Thoracic Society

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