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Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?

Caballero, Julián A.

The Economic journal (London), 2016-03, Vol.126 (591), p.281-316 [Periódico revisado por pares]

Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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  • Título:
    Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?
  • Autor: Caballero, Julián A.
  • Assuntos: Bank portfolios ; Capital movement ; Economic crisis ; Lending ; Probability ; Studies
  • É parte de: The Economic journal (London), 2016-03, Vol.126 (591), p.281-316
  • Notas: ArticleID:ECOJ12172
    ark:/67375/WNG-PTG8VW3V-Q
    istex:7629D56B555677D3FC64BB91943B503B67DFBA3E
    Appendix A. Additional Figures and Tables.Data S1.
    along with programs to replicate the results.
    I thank Joshua Aizenman for guidance and advice. The article also benefited from comments by Jon Robinson, Carlos Dobkin, Justin Marion, Galina Hale, Michael Hutchison, Vladyslav Sushko, Sergio Lago‐Alves, David Kaun, Filippo Taddei, Paul Maarek, Alessandro Rebucci, Jamus Lim, Agnese Carella, Mauricio Pinzón, the editor, two anonymous referees and conference participants at Queen Mary University of London, Trinity College Dublin, University of Paris‐Dauphine, Central Bank of Colombia, and Inter‐American Development Bank. Earlier versions of this article circulated as UCSC Working Paper No. 10‐23 and as IDB Working Paper No. 305. The data used in this article are available in the website of the
    Economic Journal
  • Descrição: This article asks whether capital inflows bonanzas increase the probability of banking crises and whether this occurs through a lending boom mechanism. Results indicate that bonanzas more than triple the odds of a crisis, raising its probability to 14% (from an unconditional probability of 4%). This effect exists in the absence of a lending boom and is found in both net and gross inflows bonanzas. This effect is driven by portfolio-equity and debt flows. While the effect of debt is channelled through excessive lending, the effect of portfolio-equity flows is present even in the absence of a lending boom.
  • Editor: Oxford: Blackwell Publishing Ltd
  • Idioma: Inglês
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